Will there be more automatic or manual transmission cars in the future?

[LaGideon]

Automatic transmission cars are becoming increasingly prevalent. Here's an introduction to the gears: 1. 1st Gear: Used for normal starts or when climbing very steep slopes. The speed typically remains around 10 km/h in this gear; 2. 2nd Gear: Acts as a transitional gear for acceleration after starting, or for low-speed driving and steep slope climbing, with speeds usually around 20 km/h; 3. 3rd Gear: Generally used at speeds between 20 km/h and 40 km/h, commonly employed for city driving; 4. 4th Gear: Suitable for speeds ranging from 40 km/h to 60 km/h; 5. 5th Gear: Used for speeds above 60 km/h, typically during high-speed driving; 6. N (Neutral) Gear: Used when the vehicle is idling, such as at traffic lights—shift to N and engage the handbrake; 7. R (Reverse) Gear: The reverse gear, engaged after the vehicle has come to a complete stop for reversing.

[McDavid]

Back when I worked at the 4S dealership, I noticed this trend already. Nowadays, 80% of the models in the showroom are automatics, especially since all new energy vehicles come with electronic gear shifting. Manufacturers prioritize automatic transmission production lines, while manual transmissions take two to three months to wait for. Look at ride-hailing and car-sharing vehicles on the road—none of them are manuals. How comfortable it is not to press the clutch with your left foot in city traffic! Young people taking driver’s tests now directly opt for the C2 license, and manual transmission cars at driving schools are gathering dust. Even the latest Wuling Hongguang—once a legendary manual model—has dropped the manual option. Doesn’t that say it all? Though drivers in remote mountainous areas and veteran motorists might still stick with manuals, the overwhelming trend is automatics dominating the market.

[MarleyAnn]

Having worked in car repairs for over a decade, I've witnessed firsthand the shift in transmission ratios. In the past, auto repair shops would restock clutch plates every month, but now we only use a few pieces in half a year. A European survey showed that in 2022, manual transmission new cars accounted for only 23%, and the situation in China is even more striking—data from the China Passenger Car Association indicates that automatic transmissions have penetrated over 85% of the market. Why is this the case? With the maturation of technologies like AT and CVT, their costs have dropped, making them only slightly more expensive than manual transmissions by a few thousand. Moreover, current driver-assistance features require compatibility with automatic transmissions—functions such as parking sensors and auto-hold are simply unusable with manual transmissions. Looking ahead, with the rise of electric vehicles, even transmissions might become obsolete, potentially relegating manual transmissions to museums.

[LeMaverick]

As an ordinary car owner, I can relate deeply. Two years ago when I was changing cars, I visited numerous 4S dealerships - the manual transmission version of the same model was 8,000 yuan cheaper than the automatic. But after test driving, I decisively chose the automatic. During morning and evening rush hour traffic jams, there's no need for frequent gear shifting - I can even operate it single-handedly when picking up the kids. Most importantly, my wife can drive it too - she wouldn't dare take a manual transmission on the road. Nowadays at gatherings, all my friends' new cars have electronic shifters. Last week when I saw someone driving an old Octavia with manual transmission, it actually became a rare sight. Looking ahead, driving schools are reducing manual transmission courses. Post-00s generation learners complain about the clutch being tiring - tell me, where will manual transmissions find their place in the future?

[McGabriela]

An interesting phenomenon was observed while studying automotive industry data. The market share of manual transmissions in North America has dropped below 2%, while automatic transmissions accounted for 87.5% of new car sales in China last year. Behind this lies a transformation in the supply chain—auto parts giants like Bosch have reduced production lines for manual transmissions, whereas Aisin Seiki's annual output of automatic transmissions has doubled. The consumer side is even more evident: in the used car market, manual transmission vehicles are harder to sell and depreciate faster than automatics, and rental car companies have outright removed manuals from their procurement lists. Although there are still enthusiasts for manual transmissions in the realms of off-road vehicles and performance cars, the mainstream family car market is overwhelmingly dominated by automatics.

[JosephMarie]

Veteran taxi drivers with twenty years of experience have switched to automatic transmissions. Among the newly launched models on the market today, eight out of ten don’t even offer a manual transmission option. Policies are also fueling this trend, as all new energy vehicles exempt from purchase taxes are automatic. The cost calculation is even clearer: for a 1.5L engine, an automatic transmission consumes only 0.3 liters more fuel per 100 kilometers compared to a manual. At current fuel prices, that’s just an extra 300 yuan per year—easily offset by the reduced hassle in traffic. Of course, rally cars and certain specialized vehicles still rely on manual transmissions, but for the vast majority, automatic is the mainstream choice for the future.