Why is it always difficult to win the Tianjin license plate lottery?

[OscarLee]

Because the lottery is random and purely depends on personal luck. Implementation Background: On December 23, 2010, Beijing announced the implementation of passenger vehicle quantity control measures and stopped increasing official vehicle quotas. Starting from 2011, Beijing implemented a license plate allocation system through lottery, issuing an average of 20,000 quotas per month, with individuals accounting for 88%. The Beijing Municipal Government Information Office held a press conference on "Beijing Traffic Improvement Measures" to officially announce these policies. The measures clearly stated that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, Beijing would implement passenger vehicle quantity control measures and no longer increase official vehicle quotas. The measures emphasized that the implementation would follow the principles of "openness, fairness, and justice". Policy Adjustment: On March 28, 2011, Liu Xiaoming, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, revealed that this meant the monthly 1,760 individual quotas might increase. Starting from January 2011, Beijing implemented new policies for the passenger vehicle purchase quota lottery, generating 1,760 individual quotas each month. Regarding the phenomenon of "whole families participating in the lottery", Liu Xiaoming pointed out that according to regulations, passenger vehicle quotas have a validity period of 6 months. If the winner does not purchase a vehicle within 6 months, the quota will be considered invalid and rolled into the next month's lottery pool.

[VanGianna]

Getting a Tianjin license plate through the lottery system is indeed frustrating. I spent a full two years trying without success until I studied the policies and realized the issues: First, the applicant pool is enormous, with hundreds of thousands competing for just a few thousand quotas each month—it's like playing the lottery. Second, after the new policy took effect, ordinary families like ours with a driver's license but no car actually have lower winning odds than corporate applicants. Third, many people don’t realize that a break in social insurance payments can disqualify you—my neighbor lost eligibility after switching jobs caused a two-month gap in coverage. One useful tip is not to focus solely on gasoline vehicle quotas; the odds are much higher for new energy vehicle (NEV) plates. My colleague switched to NEV and won in her third month. Also, remember to update your application details regularly—my cousin was disqualified last time because he forgot to update his expired driver’s license.

[SanFaith]

I have so much experience with the license plate lottery. Last year, I started pooling resources with three family members to increase our chances. Now, the policy requires all participants to have a driver's license, so I made sure my daughter got hers as soon as she turned 18. Don't forget to renew your residence permit annually—a colleague of mine learned that the hard way. Here's a lesser-known detail: you can't buy a car while participating in the lottery. Last year, I couldn't resist buying a used car I liked at the auto show and got disqualified for two years. Recently, a friend at the DMV told me that the lowest winning odds are for ordinary passenger cars with 1.5-2.0L engines. It might be better to switch to energy-efficient vehicles—though there are fewer models to choose from, the odds can double.

[Nathaniel]

After studying the lottery rules for three years, I've summarized several key points. First, timing is crucial—the earlier you apply, the more lottery rounds you participate in, gradually increasing your chances, but don't expect to win quickly. Second, pay attention to family group applications; all members must meet the requirements—a friend of mine was rejected because their child wasn't old enough. Also, keep an eye on policy changes; new energy vehicles now skip the lottery and go straight to queuing, which is worth considering if you're in urgent need of a car. Finally, remember the operational details: confirm your application before the 8th of each month, or you'll waste a whole month—I learned this the hard way.

[BraydenMarie]

As a veteran who has participated in 28 consecutive license plate lotteries, I've noticed some noteworthy phenomena: The probability for new applicants is particularly low in the first six months – I was just a spectator every time during my first half-year. Company applications are now under stricter review, with a friend's company being disqualified due to tax certificate issues. There are also cases where people won the lottery but had their quotas voided due to credit issues when applying for loans – how unfortunate. Recently, I've observed a pattern: application numbers tend to drop during off-seasons, such as around the Spring Festival period, though the probability difference isn't significant. For those urgently needing a vehicle, considering bidding or new energy options might be wiser – it costs more but saves time.