How many points does a Beijing gasoline vehicle family need to win the lottery?
4 Answers
This is not an ordinary probability issue, and we can roughly calculate it. According to the 2020 winning probability of 0.032%, if the family has 100 points, the winning probability this time would be 3%. More details are as follows: 1. Not an ordinary probability issue: If it were an ordinary probability issue, the expectation would be winning in 34 attempts. However, this is not the case. As years pass, the points will keep increasing, and other high-point families will win (reducing strong competitors), meaning the winning probability will significantly increase over time. 2. When is the winning multiplier rate high: When calculating individual points, the number of times family applicants previously participated in the lottery or the waiting time is converted into points and accumulated. When calculating the total family points: first, it fully reflects the factor of couples as core family members - families where both spouses participate in the lottery have a high winning multiplier rate; second, families with more members in the lottery pool have a high winning multiplier rate; third, families with multiple generations (including elderly and children) have a high winning multiplier rate.
I've participated in Beijing's gasoline car license plate lottery several times, and I feel like there's no guaranteed score for family points to win. Higher points certainly increase the chances, but it really comes down to luck. Our family of three applied with over 80 points and waited almost two years before winning. The point calculation is tied to the number of family members and lottery attempts—each person gets 10 base points, couples get an additional 10 points, children add points, and each additional lottery attempt increases the score by 10%. But the pool is huge, and the quotas are limited. Last year, some with as low as 60 points won, but this year, even 80 points might not be enough. My neighbor has 100 points and still hasn’t won—they’re still waiting. In short, don’t count on a specific number; just aim for higher points and prepare for the long haul. Patience is key. Checking quota changes regularly can help adjust your expectations.
From a data perspective, the family point fluctuations in Beijing's gasoline vehicle lottery are significant, with no fixed winning threshold. I've analyzed official data: the average winning score exceeded 90 points in 2023, but in 2021, 70 points could secure a win due to fewer applicants. The score requirement depends on total quotas and the size of the family pool – when quotas are scarce, even high scores may not guarantee success. The basic rule awards foundational points per additional family member, with multiple application attempts doubling the bonus (e.g., a 3-member family's 20 base points could exceed 60 after doubling). However, while higher scores improve odds, they don't ensure 100% success. I recommend monitoring annual data reports rather than fixating on specific scores. Consistent application is crucial for point accumulation, as slow growth may cause missed opportunities.
As a veteran parent sharing experience, there's no fixed score for winning the family lottery. Our four-member family with 90 points took three years to win. The key is more members mean higher points—each additional person doubles the base score, and frequent lottery attempts add points quickly. But luck plays a huge role; I've seen 70-point families win and 120-point families wait in vain. The lottery pool is crowded, quotas are limited, and even high-score families aren't guaranteed. Scoring is simple: base points for first-time applicants (spouses and children count), plus points for subsequent attempts. But don't cut corners—point values are just a reference, actual wins vary wildly. Apply diligently and wait patiently.
