Copper, Nickel Prices Could Double by 2035: Coface

Copper and nickel prices are expected to double by 2035, according to a new Coface report released on April 26. The global trade credit insurer argues that a decade-long supply squeeze, combined with strong demand from energy transition and electrification, will push industrial metals into a structural bull market. The report projects average supply deficits of about 10% of demand for aluminum, copper and nickel by 2035.

Coface’s model looks at production, consumption, and price data from the London Metal Exchange, the U.S. Geological Survey, the World Bank, and the International Energy Agency. The projected growth rates show a clear mismatch: supply is expected to increase by only 1% each year for copper, 1.5% for nickel and 0.4% for aluminum through 2035. Demand, meanwhile, is forecast to expand about 1.8% annually for all three metals if consumption matches the pace of the past decade. Under a net-zero emissions pathway, demand growth accelerates further, to about 2.2% for aluminum and copper and 4.5% for nickel.

Low-carbon technology is the main driver behind that demand shift. Clean-energy systems could account for roughly 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035, according to Coface. Electric vehicles, battery storage, grid expansion, wind turbines and data center cooling systems all consume large volumes of these metals. Data center construction has become an increasingly important side of copper demand, adding a layer of steady consumption that did not exist in earlier commodity booms.

Supply, though, cannot keep pace. Coface points to a set of structural bottlenecks that go beyond normal price cycles. New mines now take 15 to 20 years to move from discovery to production, and permitting timelines have lengthened in many countries. Weaker incentives to expand mining capacity, lower ore grades and a shift in value toward refining and processing have all contributed to what the report calls a structural squeeze on ore supply. Because of these factors, higher metal prices may not be enough to unlock additional output quickly.

Trade barriers have made the situation tighter. Coface counted 1,138 import and export restrictions on minerals currently in force, more than triple the 357 in effect a decade ago. The tariff measures introduced by the United States over the past year have compounded the problem, especially for North American buyers of imported metals. Marcos Carias, Coface’s North America economist, described US trade actions as part of a broader geopolitical shift in how metals are traded, not a short-term bargaining strategy. In his view, manufacturers in Canada, Mexico and the United States should prepare for higher metal costs that persist after trade talks, rather than expecting a quick return to previous prices.

Trade restrictions also affect price benchmarks. The London Metal Exchange remains the main reference for copper and nickel, but tariffs and export controls can break the link between physical flows and paper prices. Coface argues that fragmentation may create different regional prices for the same metal, making planning harder for multinational manufacturers. Future prices, the report says, will depend not only on demand growth but on how each metal’s supply chain responds to these distortions.

Governments have started to respond, but slowly. The US administration has pledged to speed up permitting for critical-minerals projects, and Canada has rolled out investment tax credits for mining and processing. These efforts are unlikely to change the supply picture before the early 2030s, as most projects remain in the approval or financing stage. The report’s 2035 timeframe therefore captures a period when policy action is still too fresh to have produced large new volumes.

Copper’s deficit path is particularly visible. Coface estimates that the refined copper shortfall could grow from 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million tons by 2035, around 11% of projected demand. In a net-zero scenario, the gap could be as large as 17%. Nickel looks even more stretched. The refined nickel market could face a deficit of almost 35% of projected demand under a net-zero pathway, due mainly to battery manufacturing. Aluminum is less constrained by ore availability, but still likely to see a deficit of 5 to 15 million tons, equal to about 10% of demand, because of energy use, emissions limits and slow additions of smelting capacity.

There are also signs of strain in the physical market. Copper concentrate treatment charges have fallen sharply since 2024, and exchange-monitored copper inventories at major hubs have repeatedly touched low levels in recent months. These are the kind of signals that usually indicate raw-material scarcity is already being felt by smelters. Nickel prices have also stayed well above pre-2024 levels even after major suppliers adjusted output, a sign that the market is not simply speculating about a future shortage.

Demand risks remain. A sharp economic slowdown could compress metal consumption, and technological improvements could reduce the amount of copper or nickel used in batteries and motors. Coface’s case relies on demand continuing to follow current structural trends rather than a sudden shift in design choices. But even with some slack, the supply side is so slow-moving that the market may remain balanced only if many new projects start on time.

For industrial buyers, the takeaway is that metal costs should be planned as a structural item, not a cyclical swing. EV supply chains, grid developers and construction firms are already being forced to lock in longer-term contracts. Coface’s report adds to a growing consensus among banks and research houses that the industry will need to invest far more in mining and processing capacity, otherwise the bull market could run well into the next decade.