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A sharp divide has emerged among top battery experts over the industrial roadmap for next-generation power cells, with 2026 seen as a pivotal but contentious starting line for commercial scale-up. While the industry largely labels 2026 the "mass production year" for semi-solid-state batteries, influential figures from leading firms and research institutions hold starkly different views on whether this hybrid technology is a permanent solution or merely a stepping stone to all-solid-state cells.
The Semi-Solid State Camp: Arguing for Long-Term Dominance
A significant faction of experts positions semi-solid-state, or solid-liquid hybrid, batteries not as a temporary fix but as the enduring mainstream technology. Their argument hinges on practical economics and manufacturing continuity.
Huang Xuejie, a leading lithium battery scientist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, explicitly stated at a recent industry forum that 2026 marks the mass production kickoff for semi-solid batteries. He contends that all-solid-state batteries lack the maturity to "overturn the table" before 2035, making the hybrid approach critical. The core advantage, he highlights, is over 90% compatibility with existing trillion-dollar liquid battery production infrastructure, avoiding astronomical re-tooling costs. The material strategy involves tweaking cathodes with higher nickel content and using silicon-tin alloy anodes paired with solid-state electrolyte additives, pushing energy density toward 1,050 Wh/L.
Echoing this with even stronger conviction, Yang Hongxin, Chairman of SVOLT Energy Technology, declared that semi-solid-state is "not a transitional technology" but will remain mainstream long-term. He predicts all-solid-state batteries will still struggle with cost competitiveness by 2035. SVOLT is backing this claim with action: its first medium-nickel hybrid battery enters mass production in Q3 2026, targeting over 70,000 units delivered in 2027. The technology uses a thermal composite transfer process to coat electrolyte onto the separator, raising thermal runaway temperature above 350°C and cutting fire risk by ~90%, while keeping costs level with liquid batteries. SVOLT's strategy focuses on applying hybrids first in high-performance niches like eVTOLs and premium EVs.
This view of coexistence is reinforced by Sun Cailiang, SVOLT's Technology Center VP, who sees liquid batteries dominating the medium term with hybrid tech penetrating to enhance safety and low-temperature performance, leading to a prolonged multi-technology landscape.
The All-Solid-State Perspective: Cautious Optimism Amid Major Hurdles
In contrast, other industry titans urge extreme caution regarding all-solid-state battery timelines, pointing to unresolved scientific and cost barriers.
CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun provided a sobering assessment, placing current solid-state battery technology at only TRL 4 (lab validation), far from the TRL 9 needed for stable mass production. When asked about the possibility of million-unit vehicle installations before 2030, his response was blunt: "very unlikely." He emphasized that affordability is key for such scale, posing dual challenges in performance and cost. Zeng argued innovation "cannot be scheduled," citing the persistent solid-solid interface issue where cathode, anode, and electrolyte density mismatches cause alignment problems even under extreme lab conditions.
Adding technical nuance, Gotion High-tech's Chief Scientist Zhu Xingbao deconstructed common misconceptions. He clarified that solid-state batteries don't inherently enable faster charging—early solid electrolytes had ionic conductivity four orders of magnitude lower than liquids. Furthermore, they are not naturally higher in energy density; their core value lies in enabling safer use of high-energy-density materials (like high-nickel cathodes or lithium metal) by mitigating thermal runaway risk, not in a fundamental energy leap. He noted that merely reducing liquid electrolyte doesn't change thermal runaway mechanisms, and the bar for hybrid batteries is exceedingly high, with only sulfide-based all-solid and certain hybrid routes showing real commercialization promise.
Academician Sun Shigang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences summarized the triad of core challenges: electrolyte performance, solid-solid interface compatibility, and integration with high-specific-energy electrodes.
Global Context and Market Implications
This debate unfolds against a backdrop of intense global competition. While discussions here feature Chinese experts, the technological race is worldwide. U.S. and European startups, alongside automakers like Toyota and BMW, are pouring billions into solid-state development, with varying predictions for commercialization. This expert divergence within China's battery elite—a group known for rapid commercialization—signals that the path to the next battery generation is far from settled. The outcome will significantly impact EV cost, range, and safety profiles globally, making the 2026-2035 window crucial for investors and automakers hedging their technology bets. The lack of consensus suggests a period of parallel path development, where multiple battery chemistries will compete for market segments based on specific performance and cost trade-offs.
