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On 23 October 2026, the UK Government’s consultation on the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate reaches its closing deadline. With submissions accepted until 11.59pm tonight, Autotrader has used its latest market data to call for a more realistic path toward the 2030 electric-car target, even as its own figures show EV enquiries crossing a symbolic threshold.
The consultation, run by the Department for Transport, is examining whether the current trajectory is achievable. Options under consideration include lowering the planned 80% zero-emission sales share for 2030 to 70%, 60%, or 50%, with revised annual steps beginning in 2027. Another option would keep the existing annual targets but extend compliance tools such as credit banking, borrowing, and CO₂ conversion through to 2034. Keeping the current system untouched is also still on the table.
Government officials have repeated that none of the proposed changes would alter the headline commitments: new purely petrol and diesel cars will be banned from 2030, and all new cars and vans must be zero-emission by 2035.
Toyota has already said a 50% target would be more manageable. The National Franchised Dealers Association, which represents hundreds of UK car retailers, has also voiced support for a goal in the 50-60% range. The theme is consistent: decarbonisation remains the objective, but the speed of the annual increase is testing what the market can absorb.
Autotrader’s response adds weight to that argument. The company supports retaining the 2030 and 2035 dates because long-term certainty is essential for investment planning. What it questions is the steepness of the steps in between. Bex Kennett, Autotrader’s head of new car, said the required sales increases will become “increasingly challenging” against the current economic and geopolitical backdrop, and that “pragmatic flexibility” would help manufacturers stay on track while still cutting carbon emissions.
Kennett is scheduled to discuss these issues at Automotive Management Live on 11 November, alongside dealers and brand executives from across the UK retail sector.
The government’s own modelling shows why flexibility is such a live topic. If the current targets remain unchanged, the DfT estimates that electric car sales would need to grow by an average of 31% per year between 2025 and 2030, assuming no use of compliance flexibilities in 2030. That compares with average annual growth of 21% between 2022 and 2025. The consultation document warns that the gap between actual sales and mandated sales is at risk of widening, even with the current flexibilities in place.
There is also a financial element. The DfT calculates that the extra discounting required to keep electric cars moving in 2025 cost roughly £2,800 per vehicle. That figure illustrates the pressure manufacturers are under as they chase rising targets. A softer trajectory could ease some of that margin strain, though at the cost of a slower shift toward zero-emission transport.
Autotrader’s latest platform data, released alongside its consultation submission, adds fresh context to the policy debate. So far in October 2026, electric cars accounted for 33.8% of all new-car enquiries on Autotrader — the first time that share has exceeded one-third. BMW attracted the largest slice of EV interest at 9.4%, followed by BYD at 6.2%, Hyundai at 5.8%, and Kia at 5.6%.
Among individual models, the BMW iX3 led with 4.7% of electric-car enquiries, ahead of the Renault 5 E-Tech at 4.4% and the Cupra Raval at 3.8%. These figures measure shopper interest on the platform, not completed transactions, but they are a useful gauge of demand direction.
Looking at all fuel types, BMW was the most-enquired-about brand with a 9.8% share, just ahead of Land Rover at 7.9% and Volkswagen at 6.7%. Audi took 6.2%, while newcomer Jaecoo reached 5.2% and Chery 4.0%. The Vauxhall Corsa was the most-requested model overall with 3.1% of enquiries, followed by the Range Rover Sport at 2.9% and the Volkswagen Golf at 2.7%.
Across the site, traffic to Autotrader’s new-car section was level year-on-year in October, after UK registrations climbed 12% in September. The number of new cars advertised is 13% higher than a year ago, and average advertised discounts are above 10% — 10.2% across all fuel types and 10.1% for electric cars.
Those discount figures underline how much manufacturers are relying on incentives to sustain demand. Autotrader credits part of that pressure to intense competition from Chinese brands such as BYD, Jaecoo, and Chery, which have entered the UK market with aggressive pricing and forced established makers to respond.
The UK’s ZEV mandate is one of the most ambitious in Europe, and its annual targets are used by global automakers as a benchmark for how quickly EV adoption can realistically be forced. Any move to soften the trajectory will likely be cited in other countries where manufacturers argue that regulatory deadlines are out of step with consumer demand.
In the United States, where federal EV policy has shifted across administrations and state-level rules such as California’s Advanced Clean Cars II continue to set the pace, the UK outcome could serve as a reference point. The debate is a reminder that binding sales mandates are among the most contentious tools in the transition away from petrol and diesel — and that governments are beginning to listen to industry pleas for a smoother path.
Autotrader, for its part, remains bullish on the overall market. It is sticking with its upgraded forecast of 2.21 million UK new-car registrations in 2026, representing annual growth of 9.5%. Kennett said consumer engagement has stayed strong following September’s number-plate change, helped by greater choice and competitive offers. Whether that momentum will be enough to keep manufacturers on track with the current ZEV targets is another matter, and the government has said it will complete its review by early 2027. For now, the direction of Britain’s EV mandate remains unresolved.
