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Zambia’s ambition to nearly quadruple copper output by 2031 is colliding with a harsh reality: the country’s electricity system simply wasn’t built to handle the surge. The government’s answer—a sweeping open access electricity regime—is now turning policy into practice, allowing copper mines to bypass the state utility and buy power directly from independent producers. As of June 2025, early adopters are already signing deals, but the road to 3 million tonnes of annual copper production is still paved with transmission bottlenecks, regulatory delays, and climate risks.
For decades, Zambia’s power supply was a one-window affair: the state utility ZESCO generated, transmitted, and sold electricity to all customers. That model worked when industrial demand was modest. But with copper production targeted to rise from around 800,000 tonnes to 3 million tonnes by 2031, the arithmetic became impossible. Mining already accounts for nearly half of Zambia’s total electricity consumption, according to a 2024 World Bank report. Adding 2.2 million tonnes of annual copper output will require a proportional jump in power supply—something no single utility can deliver alone.
The 2024 drought drove the point home. Zambia’s hydropower-dominated grid, which provides over 80% of generation, saw reservoir levels drop sharply. Mines faced power cuts just as global copper demand was soaring. The crisis accelerated a reform that had been gathering dust: the Electricity (Open Access) Regulations No. 40 of 2024, which took effect in mid-2024 and opened the door for direct power procurement by large consumers.
The open access framework lets qualifying consumers—including mines with demand above 1 megawatt—buy electricity directly from independent power producers (IPPs) or regional traders. The power is then “wheeled” across ZESCO’s transmission network, with the utility charging a fee for access. This shifts ZESCO from a monopoly seller to a regulated network operator, at least for large industrial users.
The process is not simple. A mine must first identify a licensed generator or trader, then commission technical studies to confirm that the grid has enough capacity to wheel the power. Next comes a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) or Power Supply Agreement, which must be approved by the Energy Regulation Board (ERB). Finally, the mine negotiates wheeling terms and fees with ZESCO. The multi-step timeline means that even well-funded miners can face months of delays before the first electron flows.
The ERB’s 2024 Annual Statistical Bulletin shows several deals already in place. First Quantum Minerals, one of the largest copper producers in Zambia, has secured 30 MW from GreenCo Power Services, a trading intermediary. Konkola Copper Mines has a 100 MW agreement with Kanona Power Company. Sinomine Kitumba Minerals has arrangements totalling 90 MW. First Quantum is also separately wheeling up to 50 MW of run-of-river hydropower to its Kansanshi and Sentinel operations, layering multiple supply sources to manage price and availability risk.
These early deals signal that the open access framework is moving from paper to practice. But they also highlight the scale gap: the 220 MW currently contracted is a fraction of the additional capacity needed to reach the 3-million-tonne target. Analysts estimate that Zambia’s copper mines will need at least 1,500 MW of new generation by 2030, even with aggressive energy efficiency measures.
The biggest challenge is transmission capacity. ZESCO’s grid was built around a centralised model, with power flowing from a few large hydro plants to major load centres. Wheeling power from multiple IPPs—some of which are located in remote areas—requires upgrades to substations and lines. The World Bank’s Zambia Electricity Supply and Access Project, approved in 2024, is funding some of these upgrades, but implementation is slow.
Regulatory approval times also pose a risk. The ERB has to vet each PPA, and as the volume of applications grows, the authority could become a bottleneck. In 2024, the ERB approved only 12 new PPAs for mining and industrial customers, according to its annual report. The board has since hired additional staff, but industry sources say waiting times can still stretch to six months.
Then there’s the climate factor. The ongoing drought has slashed hydropower generation, forcing mines to rely on more expensive thermal power or imported electricity from neighbouring countries. The open access framework allows mines to buy imported power, but the transmission lines to the Southern African Power Pool are already congested. Zambia’s government has announced plans to build a new 330 kV line to the DRC border, but it won’t be operational until 2027 at the earliest.
Zambia is the world’s seventh-largest copper producer, and its output target of 3 million tonnes by 2031 would make it a top-three player. The open access electricity reforms are a necessary condition for that growth, but they are not sufficient. Without major investment in transmission, regulatory streamlining, and diversified generation, the country risks falling short.
For global copper buyers—especially those
