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Max Verstappen rolls into this weekend's Azerbaijan Grand Prix with an unfamiliar feeling: a victory. Granted, it came on a karting circuit rather than a Formula One street track, but the four-time world champion will take it. Still searching for his first F1 win of 2025, Verstappen arrived in Baku on Wednesday, Sept. 16, fresh from a last-to-first charge through a 100-kart field at Silverstone. Six podiums this season — four in the last five races — have brought him close but not quite there, and Saturday's race, moved forward to Sept. 20, shapes as his strongest chance yet.
The karting spree lasted barely half an hour — 14 laps, 35 minutes — yet it lifted the mood around Verstappen's campaign. Slicing through the 100-kart field from the back, he took the checkered flag at Red Bull's "Max vs. 100" challenge and jokingly declared it his first triumph of 2025. The quip carried a sting of truth: in 14 rounds of Formula One this year, the 71-time grand prix winner has yet to hear the national anthem while standing on the top step.
It has not been for lack of opportunities. Verstappen has reached the podium six times, four in the last five races, with his runner-up finish in Madrid the strongest sign yet that Red Bull's upgrade program is working. The car still trails Mercedes on raw pace, but the gap has narrowed noticeably since midseason, and the development trends are heading in the right direction.
The Dutchman described the recent progress in measured terms, citing the "positive momentum" carried out of Spain and "some good steps" made with the car in recent rounds. On Baku, he needed only a few words: "We have some good memories here."
Few circuits demand a split personality quite like Baku. The 6.003 km layout pairs one of the longest straights in F1 with the claustrophobic, wall-lined castle section, forcing teams to chase outright speed and mechanical grip in the same package. Get the balance wrong, and the barriers tend to collect the evidence. Even getting through the opening lap cleanly is half the job; the run from the final corner to Turn 1 has produced its share of turn-one chaos over the years.
That volatility has kept the winners' list refreshingly open. Nine races, seven different winners. Only Verstappen and former Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez have triumphed more than once, with two victories apiece. Nobody has reached three, meaning a win on Saturday would make Verstappen the first driver to truly own this circuit.
Pole position, however, is barely an advantage. In the event's history, the polesitter has converted to victory just twice. Remember Charles Leclerc in 2021, cruising to the win before his tires gave out on the main straight in the closing laps, handing the race to Perez? Baku respects no plan.
The elephant in the room occupies the Mercedes garage. Kimi Antonelli holds an 81-point championship lead over teammate George Russell and is chasing a third consecutive victory, a ninth of the season. The 20-year-old Italian has been close to flawless — winning at Monza from the back of the grid, then again at Madring — while Russell and third-placed Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton have both conceded the title is effectively decided. Another Baku win would inch Antonelli closer to becoming the first Italian world champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953.
There is, though, one wrinkle: Antonelli has never raced a grand prix around these streets. Baku punishes inexperience, and its narrow corridors have humbled far more seasoned drivers. If Mercedes is to have an off weekend anywhere, this is where it would happen — and Verstappen is exactly the kind of rival to exploit it.
Lando Norris has his own score to settle. At Madring, the McLaren driver was leading comfortably from pole, seemingly bound for a third win in four races, when a virtual safety car appeared at the worst possible moment for him. He came home third, and defeats of that nature tend to sharpen the appetite. Norris knows Baku too — for better and worse. In 2024, he and Perez crashed while fighting on the penultimate lap, both ending their afternoons in the barriers. Expect him to be aggressive, if slightly wiser.
Red Bull's garage is at full capacity again. Isack Hadjar returns from a wrist injury that kept him out for three races, slotting back into the seat beside Verstappen, while Yuki Tsunoda steps down to the reserve role. Hadjar's return matters: with Mercedes dominating the constructors' standings, every point collected by the second Red Bull car carries extra weight.
The weekend breaks with tradition before a wheel even turns. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix will run on Saturday rather than Sunday because the host country observes its national Remembrance Day on Sunday. The entire program has shifted forward a day, and the race opens a triple-header of three consecutive weekends — a brutal stretch that will test travel schedules and spare-parts supplies to the limit. The compressed turnaround also gives teams one fewer rest day between races, a small but real test of endurance for the crews.
Saturday also brings a milestone: a decade of Formula One in Baku. The city joined the calendar in 2016 as the European Grand Prix, adopted the Azerbaijan name in 2017, and has hosted nine races since, interrupted only by the pandemic-scrubbed 2020 season. This will be the 10th — and, as always, predictions are a risky business.
Several ingredients point to Verstappen this weekend. Red Bull has shown robust straight-line speed in recent races, and Baku's long run down to Turn 1 is the longest full-throttle stretch on the calendar. The car's recent upgrades have also sharpened its low-downforce behavior, while cooler evening sessions should keep tire temperatures in a workable window. History helps as well: Red Bull has won three of the past four Baku editions.
The safety-car lottery, though, cuts both ways. Strategy calls have settled more than one race here, and a mistimed stop can turn a dominant afternoon into a midfield scrap. Verstappen's composure, however, is proven; in the final laps of a disrupted Baku race, there are few drivers calmer behind the wheel.
Realistically, a single victory would not topple the championship order. Antonelli's 81-point cushion is too large to panic, and even a maximum-score weekend would only nibble at it. What it would change is the narrative. Ending a winless streak at a circuit he loves, at the start of a season-defining triple-header, would announce that Red Bull is ready to fight into the final months. With the championship leader wearing Mercedes blue, the pressure sits squarely on the chasing pack — exactly where Verstappen prefers to operate.
Baku rarely does boring. Expect at least one safety car, a few sharp intakes of breath in the castle section, and, in all likelihood, a result that ignores the script. For Verstappen, the moment may finally arrive where the karting grin becomes a grand prix roar.
