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Oct. 20, 2026 — BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2026 sharply improves the long-term supply picture for most clean-energy minerals, but copper stands out as a growing bottleneck. The report now sees nine of the ten metals and minerals it tracks as likely to have enough supply capacity through 2050, assuming producers keep opening mines and replacing depleted reserves. Copper is the exception, with a projected deficit equal to 44% of global demand by midcentury and a $332 billion investment need to close it.
The latest annual assessment marks a clear shift from earlier warnings that several critical materials would run short. Last year’s edition projected deficits in three materials; this year, only copper remains in long-term deficit. The improvement reflects a wave of new mine investment, technological progress in batteries, and a more realistic view of demand growth for some commodities.
BNEF expects copper supply to fall behind demand starting in 2028, with the gap widening to 20 million metric tons by 2050. That shortfall would equal 44% of projected global demand, leaving utilities, automakers and grid developers vulnerable to higher prices and potential substitution.
The report sees copper demand rising 61% between 2026 and 2050 to nearly 46 million metric tons. Electrified transport is a major driver: copper use in that sector is projected to jump 244% to 11.4 million tons. Electricity grids, charging networks and other clean-energy infrastructure add further pressure.
The supply side faces its own structural limits. New copper mines take an average of 17 years from discovery to production, meaning decisions made today will not move the market quickly. Declining ore quality and years of underinvestment in exploration mean developers need to commit capital well before shortages appear. The $332 billion required to address the gap may not be enough if project timelines are not accelerated, according to BNEF’s analysis.
The copper problem is not just a mining quantity issue. From a U.S. perspective, the timeline matters as much as the tonnage. Projects approved in the late 2020s would not begin contributing supply until the 2040s, exactly when grid expansion and EV adoption are expected to be at their peak. That dynamic is why permitting reform, recycling capacity and long-term procurement contracts have moved up the policy agenda among U.S. utilities and industrial buyers.
One of the biggest changes in the outlook is the reduced demand for cobalt and nickel, thanks to the growing adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. BNEF has cut its projected demand for those metals compared with previous editions, reflecting the rapid shift away from nickel- and cobalt-heavy battery chemistries in many markets.
Lithium and graphite are moving in the opposite direction. Lithium demand is projected to nearly triple by 2050, reaching 4.8 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, up from 1.6 million tons in 2026. Graphite demand is expected to more than double to 6.9 million metric tons from 3.3 million tons. Both are tied directly to EV battery production and stationary energy storage.
Despite the strong growth, BNEF sees lithium facing only a temporary short-term deficit. New capacity coming online in 2027 should ease that pressure, allowing supply to catch up with the battery boom.
The report also flags ongoing concentration risk in global metals refining. Eight of the ten materials covered have more than half of their refining capacity in a single country; for seven of those, that country is China.
This creates a supply-chain security concern even when global capacity is sufficient. For governments and manufacturers, the availability of refined material may matter more than total mined output. Trade policies, export controls and geopolitical tensions can quickly turn a comfortable global balance into a regional shortage.
The report notes that government restrictions on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and nickel production constraints in Indonesia could add short-term volatility. Palladium is another name to watch: BNEF expects its deficit to persist until around 2034.
Long-term oversupply in some metals could create a different kind of problem. BNEF expects downward price pressure on cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and palladium through the outlook period. That could squeeze miners’ profits, force cost cuts and lead to capacity closures.
Graphite, platinum and steel have moved from projected deficits to surpluses compared with last year’s outlook. The report suggests that low prices, while helpful for manufacturers, may weaken the investment case for future supply just when it is needed.
Martin Tengler, Head of Metals and Mining at BloombergNEF, said: “The outlook for transition metals has changed dramatically. Investment in new supply and advances in battery technology have eased many of the concerns we saw just a few years ago. The challenge now is less about whether the world can produce enough metals overall, and more about whether the right materials will be available when and where they are needed. For governments and businesses, securing reliable supply and making the right investment decisions will be increasingly important.”
Another major theme is the rising role of recycling. BNEF projects that six of the ten materials studied will need recycling to meet demand by 2035, increasing to eight by 2050.
Recycling will not replace new mines, but it can reduce the pressure on primary supply and improve supply security. The challenge is building the collection, sorting and processing infrastructure early enough to handle future volumes of batteries, electronics and industrial scrap.
The broad message from BNEF is that the feared global metal shortage has largely been pushed back. The supply system, aided by battery chemistry changes and new project development, appears capable of supporting the energy transition for most materials. Copper is the clear exception and deserves focused attention.
The report also echoes a concern increasingly heard from institutions such as the International Energy Agency: copper project lead times are long enough that today’s investment decisions will shape electrification outcomes for decades. For automakers, grid operators and policymakers, the question is no longer whether the world can produce enough metal overall, but whether the right copper projects will start soon enough and in the right places.
BloombergNEF clients can access the full Transition Metals Outlook 2026 report and data viewer on bnef.com and the Bloomberg Terminal.
