U.S. Rent Trends 2025: Nationwide Decline Masks Sharp Increases in Four Major Metros

While the median U.S. rent has decreased year-over-year for 20 consecutive months, four major metropolitan areas have experienced price surges exceeding 30% since 2019. Key drivers include robust local job markets, limited housing inventory, and high homeownership costs pushing demand into the rental sector. This analysis is based on recent economic data and industry assessments.

What is the current national trend for rental prices?

For most American renters, there has been welcome relief. As of March 2025, data indicates a steady nationwide decline in rental costs, marking a year-and-a-half-long trend. The national median asking rent—the middle point of all advertised rental prices—increased only marginally by $4 from February to March, reaching $1,694. This small monthly uptick is consistent with typical seasonal patterns, where prices often rise in the spring and summer months. The broader story, however, remains one of stability and gradual decline across the country's 50 largest metropolitan areas, a trend largely attributed to a continued influx of new multifamily housing units.

Why have rents increased dramatically in Pittsburgh, Tampa, Indianapolis, and Sacramento?

Despite the national trend, four cities stand out for experiencing extreme rent growth since March 2019, far surpassing the national average increase of 20.2%. Based on economic reports, these markets are characterized by unique local pressures:

• Pittsburgh, PA (47.9% increase): A severe shortage of homes for sale has intensified competition in the rental market. Active listings for homes for sale were down 39.3% in March 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels, leaving many potential buyers with no choice but to continue renting.
• Tampa, FL (45.7% increase): Although Tampa has more homes for sale than Pittsburgh, the median list price has skyrocketed to $463,000, a 45.8% increase since 2019. Coupled with skyrocketing homeowners insurance costs, these factors make renting a more feasible option for many, thereby increasing demand.
• Indianapolis, IN (34% increase): A consistently declining unemployment rate, which remains below the national average, has bolstered local demand for rentals. A strong job market means more people with stable income are entering the housing market, primarily as renters when purchasing is challenging.
• Sacramento, CA (30.6% increase): Similar to the other metros, difficulties in the for-sale market, including high prices and limited inventory, have caused many would-be first-time homebuyers to remain in the rental market, sustaining upward pressure on rents.

How do employment and housing supply affect rental costs?

According to economic analysis, the primary engine behind rising rents in these specific areas is a simple equation of demand outpacing supply. "Economic and population growth lead to more renters with more money in their pockets chasing after a relatively fixed amount of rental inventory, which drives up prices," explains a senior economist familiar with the data. Healthy employment figures in these regions provide residents with the financial means to pay higher rents. When coupled with a limited supply of both rental units and homes for sale—a situation known as low inventory—the competition among renters naturally pushes prices upward.

What is the future outlook for rental prices?

The current period of national relief may be temporary. Economists point to potential headwinds, such as recent tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could increase construction costs by 25%. Higher costs may discourage builders from starting new multifamily projects, which would slow the growth of new rental inventory. A reduction in new construction, combined with sustained demand, could reverse the current downward trend and lead to higher rents across more markets in the future.

Key Takeaways for Renters:

• The national rental market is cooling, but local conditions vary dramatically.
• Metro areas with strong job growth and limited housing supply are most susceptible to significant rent hikes.
• Prospective renters should research local market dynamics, including employment trends and new construction activity, to understand future cost pressures.
• While new construction has provided recent relief, external factors like rising material costs could constrain future supply and impact affordability.