U.S. Migration Shift: High-Flood-Risk Counties See Population Decline as Residents Move Out

For the first time since 2019, high-flood-risk counties in the U.S. experienced a net population loss from domestic migration, with nearly 30,000 more people moving out than in during 2024. This reversal, driven by major outflows from areas like Miami, Houston, and Brooklyn, highlights a growing trend where climate risk, soaring living costs, and insurance premiums are outweighing the appeal of sunbelt living. While international immigration continues to bolster populations in some vulnerable areas, the data suggests a significant shift in how Americans are choosing where to live.

What Does the Data Show About Migration from Flood-Prone Areas?

An analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data reveals a clear divergence. High-flood-risk counties saw a net outflow of 29,027 people in 2024. In contrast, low-risk counties gained 35,941 residents—their largest increase since 2019. A "net outflow" occurs when more people move out of an area than into it. This trend marks a sharp reversal from the pandemic-era boom, when remote workers flocked to coastal Florida and other sunbelt regions.

The following table illustrates the scale of the exodus from some of the most vulnerable counties:

Why Are People Leaving High-Risk Areas Like Florida and Texas?

Based on our experience assessment, the decision to relocate is motivated by a combination of financial and environmental pressures.

• Rising Insurance and Housing Costs: Homeowners in coastal Florida have faced dramatic increases in insurance premiums. One Miami agent reported their annual homeowner's insurance rising from under $2,000 to $6,700 in just two years, with flood insurance also climbing significantly. These costs, on top of high home prices and mortgage rates, are making ownership untenable for some.
• Climate Risk and Extreme Weather: Direct experiences with hurricanes and flooding are causing residents to reevaluate. After Hurricane Helene caused extensive damage in Pinellas County, FL, many residents were forced to leave and opted to relocate to lower-risk areas. The constant threat of extreme weather is a primary concern.
• Other Lifestyle Factors: For some, particularly those who moved during the pandemic, the reality of life in these areas did not meet expectations. Agents report "boomerang" migrants returning home due to factors like extreme heat, which limits outdoor activities for much of the year, or political climate.

Are Any Flood-Prone Areas Still Gaining Population?

Yes, nearly 180 high-flood-risk counties saw a net inflow of residents. However, this growth is slowing. The common denominator for counties still attracting domestic migrants is often relative affordability.

The top high-risk counties for net inflows in 2024 were:

• St. Johns County, FL: +11,661
• Fort Bend County, TX: +10,467
• Volusia County, FL: +9,724

The median home sale price in the top ten high-risk counties with net outflows was $437,239, compared to $376,026 in those with net inflows. This suggests that even with flood risk, lower costs can remain a powerful draw, though the pace of migration to these areas is decelerating.

How Does Immigration Affect These Population Trends?

International immigration is currently masking domestic population loss in many flood-prone counties. For example, Miami-Dade County had a domestic net outflow of over 67,000 people, but its overall population grew by 2.3% due to a net international migration of nearly 124,000. This dynamic means that six of the ten counties with the largest domestic outflows still saw their total populations increase in 2024. However, changes in federal immigration policy could impact this trend moving forward.

Key Takeaways for Home Buyers and Sellers

Prospective buyers considering a home in a high-flood-risk area should carefully evaluate long-term costs. Beyond the mortgage payment, it is crucial to factor in rapidly escalating homeowners and flood insurance premiums. Sellers in these markets may be competing with a growing number of residents looking to relocate, potentially affecting time-on-market and final sale price. For all parties, understanding the specific climate risks and the financial health of homeowner associations (HOAs), especially for condos, is an essential step in the decision-making process.