U.S. Homebuyer Migration Slows in 2023: Affordability and Remote Work Trends Shift

The share of American homebuyers looking to move to a different metropolitan area fell to 23.9% in November 2023, the lowest level in 18 months. This decline from a peak of 26% in the summer signals a cooling of the inter-metro migration boom that characterized the peak pandemic years. The trend is primarily driven by two factors: reduced flexibility for remote work and narrowing affordability advantages in previously popular destination cities.

This analysis is based on a review of industry migration data from the latter half of 2023, which tracks the home search patterns of millions of users across more than 100 U.S. metro areas.

Why Are Fewer Homebuyers Relocating Now?

The decline in relocation activity stems from a significant shift in the housing and employment landscape. First, with many employers implementing return-to-office policies, the feasibility of remote work has diminished for a portion of the workforce. This reduces the ability of employees to move far from their physical workplace without changing jobs.

Second, the affordability gap between expensive coastal metros and popular inland destinations has narrowed. During the pandemic, prices in migration hotspots like Sacramento and Las Vegas rose dramatically. For example, while home prices in the Bay Area increased approximately 8% from pre-pandemic levels, prices in Sacramento surged about 35%. This rapid appreciation makes the financial case for relocating less compelling than it was just a few years ago.

Which Cities Are Still Top Destinations for Relocators?

Despite the overall slowdown, certain affordable metros continue to attract a high volume of inbound homebuyers. The most popular destinations in November 2023 were:

1. Sacramento, California
2. Las Vegas, Nevada
3. North Port, Florida

A newcomer to the list was Spokane, Washington, which ranked tenth. These areas all share a common trait: they offer a lower cost of living compared to the major job centers where most inbound buyers originate. The typical home in Spokane, for instance, sells for around $416,000, which is nearly half the median price in Seattle, the most common origin for buyers moving to Spokane. The appeal is clear for buyers seeking relative affordability.

What Metros Are People Leaving?

For the first time on record, Los Angeles topped the list of metros with the highest net outflow—meaning more people were looking to leave than move in. It was followed by the San Francisco Bay Area and New York. These expensive coastal job centers consistently rank high on this list due to their high housing costs. The median home price in Los Angeles is roughly double that of Las Vegas, a primary destination for those leaving LA.

The shift in rankings indicates that while migration out of the Bay Area has steadily slowed, the outflow from Los Angeles has increased in recent months.

Practical Advice for Homebuyers Considering a Move

If you are contemplating a relocation to a more affordable city, a thorough assessment is crucial.

• Re-evaluate Affordability: The business case for moving has changed. Carefully analyze current home prices, property taxes, and overall living costs in your target destination versus your current location. The savings may be less significant than you assume.
• Confirm Remote Work Status: Your ability to relocate hinges on your employer's remote work policy. Secure a long-term, written remote work agreement before making any firm plans to move.
• Research Local Markets: A destination's popularity can drive up prices quickly. Investigate not just the housing market but also job opportunities and community amenities to ensure it aligns with your lifestyle long-term.

The key takeaway is that the migration frenzy has subdued. While moving for affordability remains a powerful motivator, the decision requires more due diligence than it did during the height of the remote work boom.