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U.S. home prices increased by 0.5% month-over-month in September 2024, marking the fastest pace of growth since April and the third consecutive month of accelerating appreciation. Annually, prices rose 6%, the smallest year-over-year increase since December. This market dynamic is primarily driven by a significant shortage of housing supply, which continues to outweigh demand despite higher mortgage rates. However, the trend is not uniform, with 13 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas experiencing price declines.
The data, sourced from the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI), provides a clear snapshot of the market. The RHPI is a respected measure that uses the repeat-sales pricing method. This methodology tracks the sale prices of the same single-family homes over time, calculating seasonally adjusted changes to provide a more accurate view of pure price appreciation, excluding the influence of the types of homes selling in a given period. The September 2024 data covers the three months ending September 30, offering a timely indicator compared to other indices. The core finding is that while the market remains competitive, the intense price growth seen in recent years is moderating on an annual basis.
The persistence of price growth is directly linked to a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. "There are around 20% fewer homes on the market today than there were five years ago, mainly because so many homeowners locked in a low mortgage rate during the pandemic," explained Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. This phenomenon, often called the "lock-in effect," disincentivizes homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates from selling. Even with mortgage rates fluctuating—dipping to 6.08% in September before rising above 6.5%—the chronic lack of housing inventory means demand from eager buyers continues to push prices upward. Experts suggest significant price relief is unlikely until more inventory becomes available, potentially in the spring selling season.
The national trend masks significant regional variations. A seasonally adjusted month-over-month price decrease occurred in 13 major metros. The most notable declines were concentrated in a few markets:
| Metropolitan Area | State | Month-Over-Month Price Change |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | TX | -1.0% |
| Fort Lauderdale | FL | -0.9% |
| Fort Worth | TX | -0.5% |
Conversely, the strongest monthly gains were recorded in Nassau County, NY (1.7%), Philadelphia, PA (1.6%), and Virginia Beach, VA (1.4%). This divergence highlights the importance of understanding local market conditions, as national headlines may not reflect the reality in a specific city.
For prospective homebuyers, the market remains challenging. Bidding wars are still common in areas with scant inventory, and prices are not expected to fall significantly in the near term. Based on our experience assessment, buyers should be prepared for a competitive process and get pre-approved for a mortgage to strengthen their offers. For homeowners considering selling, the ongoing supply shortage means your property will likely attract serious interest. However, with affordability strained by higher rates, pricing your home correctly from the start is critical to a successful sale.
In conclusion, the U.S. housing market in September 2024 is characterized by strengthening monthly price growth amid a cooling annual rate. The central driver remains a historic shortage of homes for sale. While some markets are cooling, the broader national trend points to continued upward pressure on prices until the supply-demand balance shifts. Both buyers and sellers must navigate this landscape with realistic expectations and a focus on hyper-local data.
