The Evolving Value of Trump-Branded Condos: A Data-Driven Analysis

A Redfin analysis of luxury condo sales data reveals that while Trump-branded properties still command a price premium, that premium has shrunk since the 2016 presidential election. The typical Trump-branded condo (a type of individually owned residential unit within a larger building) sold for 20% more than comparable luxury units in the post-election period, down from a 28% premium pre-election. Concurrently, real estate agents have become less likely to mention the "Trump" name in online listings, potentially to avoid limiting the pool of potential buyers.

What is the current price premium for a Trump-branded condo?

Based on a Redfin analysis of sales from November 2016 through mid-November 2019, the typical Trump-branded condo in the U.S. (excluding New York City) sold for an estimated $729,000. This represents a 20% premium over the sale price of comparable luxury condos in the same zip codes. However, this marks a decrease from the three years preceding the election, when the Trump-brand premium stood at 28%. The analysis controlled for factors such as location, size, views, and the number of bedrooms and bathrooms to ensure a fair comparison.

How have sale prices changed in buildings with Trump-branded condos?

The overall luxury condo market in the areas studied experienced a downturn in the post-election period. The typical sale price for a Trump-branded condo dropped by 16% compared to the pre-election period. Comparable non-Trump luxury condos in the same zip codes also saw a price decrease, though it was less pronounced at 10.5%. This suggests that while market-wide factors are at play, Trump-branded properties have been more susceptible to price depreciation. Based on our experience assessment, this divergence indicates that the brand itself has become a factor in valuation.

Are real estate agents marketing these properties differently?

Marketing strategies have shifted significantly. In 2019, only 65% of condo listings in Trump-branded buildings mentioned the "Trump" name in their online descriptions. This is a sharp decline from 81% in 2015, the year before the election. This trend points to a strategic decision by sellers and agents to depoliticize listings. As Redfin's chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, noted, "Marketing to just one side of the aisle—even if it’s just mentioning a politician’s name—could mean half as many potential buyers see a home."

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?

The data presents a nuanced picture for both parties. Sellers can still expect a Trump-branded condo to sell for more than a comparable unit, but the narrowing premium means that the brand's power to boost value has diminished. In some markets, particularly urban, Democrat-leaning areas, the political association may even work to a buyer's advantage.

• For Buyers: There may be increased negotiation leverage, especially on smaller units. Anecdotal evidence from agents includes instances of price reductions and significant concessions, such as including high-value furnishings or parking spots.
• For Sellers: Pricing a unit competitively from the outset is critical. Understanding that the brand may not appeal to all buyers, a neutral marketing approach that emphasizes the property's physical attributes and location, rather than the brand, is often a more effective strategy to attract a broader audience.

The key takeaway is that the value of a real estate brand is not static. The Trump brand's association with condos has demonstrably changed, affecting both pricing and marketing tactics. Buyers and sellers should base their decisions on recent, localized data and the guidance of a knowledgeable local agent.