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The US housing market is moving at an unprecedented pace, with one-third of all homes that sold in a recent four-week period going under contract within just one week of being listed. This acceleration is occurring even during a season when the market typically cools, driven by steady buyer demand and a persistently low supply of homes for sale. The median home sale price has reached $358,125, a 13% increase from the previous year and a 30% surge compared to the same period in 2019, highlighting the market's sustained intensity.
The primary driver is a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. While homebuyer demand remains strong—evidenced by a 10% year-over-year increase in the Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—the number of available homes is drastically low. Active listings have fallen 22% from 2020 and are down 40% from 2019. This means there are far more buyers competing for significantly fewer properties, forcing swift action. When a desirable home hits the market, it often receives multiple offers quickly, leading to a faster pending sale status, which means the seller has accepted an offer but the transaction has not yet closed.
Comparing current data to both 2020 and the more typical pre-pandemic market of 2019 reveals the extent of the shift. The share of homes under contract within a week is not just up from 30% in 2020, but has surged from a mere 20% in 2019. Other key indicators show a similar trend:
| Metric | 2021 (4-wk ending Oct 24) | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $358,125 | +13% | +30% |
| Homes Pending in 1 Week | 33% | 30% | 20% |
| Homes Pending in 2 Weeks | 45% | 42% | 31% |
| Homes Sold Above List Price | 45% | 35% | 22% |
| Median Days on Market | 23 | 31 | 44 |
This data confirms that the market is significantly hotter and more competitive than in recent memory, with homes selling faster and for higher premiums.
For sellers, this is a favorable environment. Homes are selling quickly and there is a high probability of receiving offers at or above the asking price. However, the slight dip in the sale-to-list price ratio to 100.6%—meaning the average home sold for 0.6% above ask—suggests the peak frenzy may be moderating slightly. For buyers, the competition is intense. Being prepared to act immediately is critical. This includes having a mortgage pre-approval in hand and being willing to make competitive offers, often waiving certain contingencies, though this comes with increased risk.
The market's pace is closely tied to mortgage rates, which have begun to rise, reaching 3.09% in late October. While still low by historical standards, this is the highest rate since April. A substantial increase in rates could cool buyer demand and slowly balance the market.
To navigate this fast-moving market, buyers should get fully pre-approved and be ready to tour and make offers on homes immediately after they are listed. Sellers can capitalize on high demand but should work with their agent to price their home strategically to attract multiple offers without deterring buyers.
