How Political Climate Influences U.S. Homebuying and Relocation Decisions

A significant number of Americans consider relocating—some even internationally—based on political outcomes and shifts in state-level governance, according to a late-2020 survey. This trend highlights a growing factor in real estate decisions: political alignment. The data suggests that changes in states' rights could make interstate law differences more pronounced, directly impacting where people choose to live. For homebuyers, understanding these potential shifts is crucial for making a long-term investment that aligns with their values.

What Percentage of People Would Consider Moving Abroad for Political Reasons?

In October 2020, a survey of over 3,000 U.S. residents revealed that 16% would consider leaving the country if their preferred presidential candidate lost the election. This figure marked a notable increase from 9% in 2016. The respondents were categorized into levels of intent: 3% stated they would "absolutely" leave, while the remainder would "seriously consider" or "consider" it. Broken down by candidate support, 20% of Joe Biden's supporters and 15% of President Trump's supporters expressed this sentiment. However, based on our experience assessment, the financial and legal complexities of international relocation mean most individuals who consider it are unlikely to follow through. This data primarily indicates heightened political division.

How Does Political Dissatisfaction Influence Domestic Moves?

The influence of politics extends to domestic relocation preferences. The same survey found that 42% of respondents would be hesitant to move to an area where most residents held opposing political views, up from 32% in June 2020. This "political sorting" can influence neighborhood demand and, consequently, local real estate markets. When choosing a location, buyers are increasingly weighing community demographics alongside traditional factors like school districts and commute times. This trend suggests that an area's political landscape may become a more significant component of its overall appeal to potential residents.

How Could an Increase in States' Rights Affect Relocation Decisions?

A potential shift in the balance between state and federal power could have substantial implications for real estate. The survey indicated that 24% of respondents would want to move to a different state if the Supreme Court increased states' rights over issues like healthcare and reproductive laws. An additional 21% said such a change would make them like their current state more. The core issue is that greater state autonomy would lead to more significant legal disparities between states. For example, if federal precedents on certain issues were overturned, state law would become the sole authority, making the choice of state a more critical long-term decision. As the survey's chief economist noted, people and businesses could "vote with their feet," potentially impacting local economies and housing markets.

The desire to move based on states' rights varied by political affiliation and current location:

• 30% of Trump supporters would consider moving, versus 21% of Biden supporters.
• Trump supporters living in "blue" states were far more likely to want to move (38%) than those in "red" states (24%).
• Biden supporters in "red" states were slightly more likely to want to move (24%) than those in "blue" states (19%).

What Practical Advice Should Homebuyers Consider?

For individuals making a real estate decision, it is prudent to look beyond the immediate market conditions. Evaluate the long-term legislative trajectory of a state, as laws governing property taxes, local ordinances, and various social policies can affect your quality of life and the property's future value. While remote work has made long-distance moves more feasible, with nearly 29% of users looking to relocate in mid-2020, a decision should be based on a comprehensive analysis. Consult with a local real estate expert who understands how state and local laws might evolve. Ultimately, the best choice aligns your financial investment with your personal values and anticipated lifestyle needs.