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Recent U.S. Census data reveals a significant demographic shift: key swing counties in battleground states saw their largest population gains in a decade during 2021, driven by pandemic-era migration. This movement is making these politically crucial areas more diverse, a trend with potential implications for both the housing market and electoral outcomes. While this increasing diversity could benefit Democratic candidates, it is counterbalanced by Americans' tendency to relocate to areas that align with their existing political views.
An analysis of domestic migration patterns shows that Republican-leaning ("red") counties in key Senate election states gained approximately 340,000 residents in 2021. This was the largest annual increase since at least 2012. Similarly, competitive ("purple" or swing) counties in those same states gained about 289,000 new residents, also a ten-year high. The key states analyzed include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Senate races are often decided by narrow margins.
This migration had a tangible impact on the demographic makeup of these areas. Both red and purple counties in key states became about one percentage point less white from 2019 to 2021, continuing a longer-term trend. In purple counties specifically, the Hispanic population share grew by half a percentage point, while the shares of Black and Asian American residents saw slight increases.
Table: Demographic Shift in Key Purple Counties (2019-2021)
| Demographic Group | Change in Population Share |
|---|---|
| White Population | -1.0 percentage point |
| Hispanic Population | +0.5 percentage points |
| Black Population | Slight Increase |
| Asian American Population | Slight Increase |
Demographic changes, even small ones, can influence elections in tightly contested areas. Based on historical voting patterns, increased diversity has the potential to tilt purple counties toward Democratic candidates. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, a significant majority of Black, Latino, and Asian American voters supported the Democratic candidate.
"These changes in racial makeup are small but noteworthy," said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. "The pandemic-driven wave of relocation to suburbs and rural areas–which tend to lean more conservative than city centers–made those toss-up places more diverse. The demographic shift isn’t big enough to turn solidly red places blue, but it could move the needle in purple areas."
Marr points to migration from California to Phoenix as a factor that helped Democrats win Arizona in 2020, suggesting similar trends could impact races in Georgia and Nevada.
Despite the trend toward diversity, other strong forces may benefit Republican candidates. A major counterforce is "geographic sorting," where people choose to move to neighborhoods populated by those with similar lifestyles and political preferences.
This trend is supported by a Redfin survey, which found that nearly half (46%) of U.S. residents would be hesitant to move to an area where most people don't share their political views. This suggests that while purple counties are becoming more diverse, some of the new arrivals may be conservatives seeking communities that align with their values.
Additional factors favoring Republicans include typical midterm election dynamics, where the party not holding the presidency often gains seats, and overarching voter concerns about the economy. Furthermore, studies indicate that recent movers are less likely to vote, potentially diluting the electoral impact of new residents.
For those involved in real estate, these migration patterns highlight important market dynamics. Population growth directly fuels housing demand, often leading to increased competition for homes and upward pressure on prices in popular destination counties.
Prospective home buyers should research area growth trends. A county experiencing significant inbound migration may present a stronger investment in terms of property value appreciation, but also means facing a more competitive purchasing environment. Understanding the factors driving migration—such as affordability, lifestyle, and job opportunities—can provide valuable insight into a market's long-term stability.
Investors and agents should monitor demographic reports. Shifts in population and diversity can signal changing demand for different types of properties, from single-family homes to multi-unit dwellings. These trends can also influence local property taxes and community infrastructure development.
The pandemic migration surge has had a lasting impact on housing markets in key states. The most practical advice is to factor long-term demographic trends into real estate decisions.
