Climate Migration Paradox: Why Are People Moving to High-Risk Disaster Areas?

Despite increasing climate risks, U.S. counties with the highest exposure to heat, drought, fire, and flood are experiencing significant population growth, largely driven by factors like affordability and housing availability. This counterintuitive trend, identified in a Redfin analysis of Census and climate data, highlights a complex decision-making process for homebuyers, where immediate lifestyle benefits often outweigh long-term environmental dangers. From 2016 to 2020, the 50 counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat risk saw an average population increase of 4.7% due to positive net migration—a term meaning more people moved in than out.

What is Driving Population Growth in Climate-Risk Zones?

The primary driver appears to be relative affordability. Counties with high heat risk, for example, are often less expensive than those with lower risk. Of the 50 counties with the greatest share of homes facing high heat risk, 40 had a median sale price below the national median of $315,000 in 2020. This pattern suggests that buyers are making trade-offs, prioritizing lower costs, lower property taxes, or more housing space even when it means accepting a higher probability of environmental disasters.

Redfin Economist Sebastian Sandoval-Olascoaga notes, “For a lot of people, these benefits seem to outweigh the dangers of climate change. But as natural disasters become more frequent, homeowners in these areas may end up losing property value or face considerable difficulty getting their properties insured.”

Which Climate Risks Are Seeing the Most Growth?

The analysis breaks down migration trends by five specific climate risks. The following table summarizes the average population change from 2016-2020 for the 50 most at-risk counties in each category.

Conversely, counties with the lowest share of homes facing high risk for heat, drought, and fire saw their populations decline by an average of over 1% during the same period.

What Are the Practical Risks for Homeowners in These Areas?

The potential consequences extend beyond the immediate threat of a disaster. Homeowners in high-risk zones may face two significant financial challenges:

1. Insurance Difficulties: As natural disasters become more frequent and severe, insurers may raise premiums significantly or even refuse to offer coverage in certain areas, making homeownership prohibitively expensive.
2. Property Value Erosion: Over time, persistent climate threats could dampen buyer demand, potentially leading to stagnating or declining home values.

Based on our experience assessment, a homebuyer's decision must factor in these long-term carrying costs, not just the purchase price.

How Has Climate Migration Played Out in Specific Counties?

The trend is evident in specific high-growth areas across the country:

• Heat Risk: Williamson County, TX (Austin area), where every home faces high heat risk, led with a 16.3% population growth rate from 2016-2020.
• Drought & Fire Risk: Custer County, CO, a rural area south of Denver, saw the highest growth (16.8%) among counties with high drought and fire risk.
• Flood Risk: Horry County, SC (Myrtle Beach), experienced a 17.6% population increase despite high flood risk.
• Storm Risk: Lee County, FL (Cape Coral, Fort Myers), prone to hurricanes, saw 12.7% growth.

The key takeaway for buyers is to conduct thorough due diligence. While an affordable home in a sunny locale is appealing, it is crucial to research local climate projections, investigate the availability and cost of hazard insurance (insurance for disasters like floods or wildfires), and understand any local regulations, such as water-use restrictions during droughts. Weighing the immediate benefits against potential long-term risks is essential for making a sound real estate investment.