Climate Migration Paradox: Americans Move to High-Risk Areas for Affordability

A significant trend is reshaping U.S. housing patterns: Americans are moving into areas with high climate risk at an accelerating rate. An analysis of U.S. Census data reveals that the most flood-prone counties saw a net influx of 384,000 people in 2021 and 2022—a 103% increase from the prior two years. This movement, largely driven by the housing affordability crisis, is also evident in counties vulnerable to wildfires and extreme heat, despite the growing dangers of property damage and decreasing home values.

The pandemic homebuying boom, fueled by remote work and low mortgage rates, prompted a migration from expensive coastal cities to more affordable Sun Belt states. This shift underscores a critical calculation many homebuyers make: prioritizing immediate benefits like lower costs over long-term climate risks. “It’s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run,” according to an assessment by a Redfin chief economist.

Why Are People Moving to High-Risk Areas?

The primary driver is housing affordability. As prices soar in traditional job hubs, areas in Florida, Texas, and Arizona offer relatively lower-cost options. This affordability is partly a result of increased housing supply; more than half (55%) of homes built this decade face fire risk, compared to just 14% of homes built from 1900 to 1959. Many disaster-prone regions have a larger pool of homes to choose from, making them attractive to buyers priced out of safer markets.

Another factor is the delayed financial impact of disasters. Homeowners and renters often don't bear the full cost of rebuilding after a storm, as insurance and government programs frequently subsidize recovery efforts. This can insulate residents from the immediate economic consequences, making risky areas seem more financially viable in the short term.

Which Regions Are Experiencing the Highest Influx?

• Coastal Florida: Lee County, FL, which includes Fort Myers and Cape Coral, had the largest net inflow of the high-flood-risk counties analyzed—nearly 60,000 more people moved in than out over two years. This surge occurred despite half the homes in the county facing high flood risk and the recent devastation of Hurricane Ian. Florida claims eight of the top ten high-flood-risk counties with the largest net inflows.
• Inland California and the Southwest: Riverside County, CA, where nearly 600,000 homes face high wildfire risk, saw a net influx of nearly 40,000 people. Areas in Utah and Arizona have also seen populations swell as buyers seek affordability compared to coastal California cities.
• Extreme Heat Zones: Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) had the largest net inflow among high-heat-risk counties, with 76,000 more people moving in than out. This is despite the area grappling with extreme water shortages and record-breaking temperatures.

Are There Any Exceptions to This Trend?

Yes. Some areas are experiencing a net outflow of residents following extreme devastation. Butte County, CA (Paradise) and Orleans Parish, LA (New Orleans) are prominent examples where more people are leaving than moving in. In Louisiana, soaring homeowners insurance costs are diminishing purchasing power and making housing more expensive, creating a clear financial disincentive.

What Practical Advice Should Homebuyers Consider?

For those evaluating a move, it is crucial to look beyond the listing price. Based on our experience assessment, potential buyers should:

• Research specific climate risks for any property, including flood, fire, and heat projections for the next 30 years.
• Factor in the true cost of ownership, including potentially skyrocketing homeowners insurance premiums, which are rising sharply in high-risk states.
• Inquire about community resilience, such as modern building codes and updated infrastructure projects designed to mitigate damage.
• Understand that nowhere is entirely risk-free, as the impacts of climate change, from heat waves to wildfire smoke, are becoming more widespread.

The long-term impact on property value is a significant consideration. Nearly half of recent movers believe natural disasters will impact local home values within a decade. While climate change is rarely the primary reason for a move today, its financial implications are likely to become a more pressing factor in real estate decisions.