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New data reveals a significant trend in U.S. real estate: Americans are increasingly moving to metropolitan areas with high climate risk. In July, three of the top ten migration destinations were in Florida, a state facing substantial threats from storms and rising sea levels. Nationally, 29.8% of home searchers looked to relocate to a different metro area, a rate that remains elevated above pre-pandemic levels despite a slight decline from the second quarter. This analysis is based on a sample of approximately two million users, providing a clear snapshot of moving patterns.
Miami claimed the top spot for net inflow in July 2021, with 7,610 more people looking to move in than leave—more than triple the number from a year earlier. Tampa and Cape Coral also ranked in the top ten. According to a local Redfin real estate agent, the primary draws are the beaches, warm weather, and low taxes. The shift to remote work has been a major catalyst, allowing people to prioritize lifestyle and affordability over proximity to a physical office. Major origin cities for these migrants include New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
| Metro Area | Net Inflow (July 2021) | Top Origin Metros |
|---|---|---|
| Miami, FL | 7,610 | New York, Chicago, Los Angeles |
| Sacramento, CA | 5,300 | San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles |
| Las Vegas, NV | 4,900 | Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York |
| Tampa, FL | 4,800 | New York, Washington, DC, Chicago |
| Cape Coral, FL | 3,300 | Chicago, New York, Washington, DC |
| Source: Redfin migration analysis, July 2021. Net inflow measures how many more users looked to move into a metro than leave. |
Despite their popularity, these destinations face significant environmental challenges. More than half (59%) of properties in Miami face some level of flood risk, according to data from the First Street Foundation. Sea levels in Miami-Dade County are projected to rise two feet or more by 2060. However, based on our experience assessment, most homebuyers currently do not view these climate factors as dealbreakers. Many focus on the short-term benefits, with the perception that major impacts are a distant concern. A separate Redfin analysis found that homes in high flood-risk areas actually sold for a record 13.6% premium in the first quarter of 2021, driven by demand for waterfront properties.
The metros with the largest net outflows in July were the typical expensive coastal hubs. San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York saw the most residents looking to move away. This trend, while accelerated by the pandemic, showed signs of moderating. For example, New York's net outflow was 18,382 in July, down from 26,650 a year earlier, likely as pandemic restrictions eased.
| Metro Area | Net Outflow (July 2021) | Top Destination Metros |
|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 18,382 | Miami, Philadelphia, Boston |
| San Francisco, CA | 17,240 | Sacramento, Seattle, Los Angeles |
| Los Angeles, CA | 16,323 | Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego |
| Washington, DC | 9,460 | Philadelphia, Miami, Baltimore |
| Boston, MA | 5,560 | Portland, Miami, Providence |
| Source: Redfin migration analysis, July 2021. Net outflow measures how many more users looked to leave a metro than move in. |
The overall share of people looking to relocate dipped slightly in July from the second quarter. Redfin's Chief Economist, Daryl Fairweather, suggests that the initial price advantage of moving to more affordable areas has diminished as home prices in those destinations have surged. For instance, home prices in Austin are 39% higher than a year ago. Despite this, relocation interest remains high because remote work is now a permanent fixture for many companies.
For homebuyers considering a move to a high-risk climate area, it is crucial to research long-term property resilience and potential insurance costs. While the short-term appeal is strong, evaluating how climate change could impact both your lifestyle and your home’s value over the next 30 years is a necessary step in the decision-making process.
